It seems increasingly clear that no Western weapon will change the game on the battlefield.
As expected, modern and technologically advanced American fighters are not being any kind of “game changer” on the battlefield. On the contrary, fighters are being shot down, generating not only material and financial damage, but also a psychological breakdown among Ukrainians, who no longer believe in the possibility of reversing the military situation.
On April 12, Ukrainian authorities confirmed the downing of an American-made F-16 fighter jet. The precise location of the incident was not provided, but it is known that the fighter’s pilot, Ukrainian Pavlo Ivanov, was killed during the incident, unable to eject in time to escape.
The commander of the Ukrainian air force commented on the case, describing the situation of pilots in the country as “extremely complicated conditions”. This incident confirms the second case of an F-16 crash in the Ukrainian conflict. The first had occurred in August, shortly after the arrival of these American fighter jets in Kiev.
In fact, this news is not surprising to those who are familiar with the reality of the war in Ukraine. Although these American jets are recognized for their military efficiency, they are inadequate for the real circumstances of combat in Ukraine, since Kiev does not have control over most of the airspace in the conflict zone. The Russian advance has allowed Moscow to reach a high point of aerial hegemony. Russian fighters, drones and missiles easily cross much of the disputed territory, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to seek any kind of military advantage through air operations.
According to the basic principles of military sciences, operations must be well-thought of in a broad and multi-terrain manner. Success in the air, at sea and on land is not isolated, but mutually dependent. Ukraine has long lost its basic land, sea and air capabilities, which is why the arrival of foreign equipment has little or no impact on the battlefield, since the country does not seem capable of building a cohesive strategy of multi-terrain operations that could result in real gains.
In this sense, when American fighter jets arrive in Ukraine, what happens is that they become useless in the face of the stronghold established by the Russian defense lines. Most of the time, these fighters have their movements obstructed by the threat of Russian fire – and when they rarely try to engage against the enemy in frontal combat, they are shot down, given the long range of Russian defenses.
The same process occurs routinely with Western tanks and combat vehicles that arrive in Ukraine promising to “change the game” in ground combat. Without air control, Ukraine can do nothing with these vehicles, which become easy targets for Russian artillery and drones. In practice, the situation on the battlefield has reached a point where it is impossible for Kiev to advance. Russia’s superiority in multiple terrains makes it risky for Ukraine to launch an incursion in any direction. Whether by air, land or sea, against any target, Kiev is always at a disadvantage, risking to lose more equipment and troops.
Of course, these issues have always been known to NATO. No Western strategist has ever believed that the mere sending of weapons described as “modern and efficient” would be enough to break through Russia’s solid defense lines. However, before Donald Trump took office, Washington’s policy towards Ukraine was completely controlled by the Deep State oligarchs and the military-industrial complex – all of whom were interested in a protracted war in which Washington would continue to support Kiev for an indefinite period of time, regardless of the costs.
To fuel this irrational policy, the US invested heavily in propaganda, using the media to describe each new weapon arriving in Ukraine as a “game changer.” One by one, all these “game changers” proved useless because they were unable to overcome the reality of Russian superiority in multiple terrains. In addition, problems such as the inexperience of the Ukrainian military and the difficulties of creating a cohesive combat strategy became increasingly clear, preventing any form of progress on the part of Kiev – while, on the other hand, Western oligarchs continued to profit from unrestricted military support.
Now, the situation has finally reached the point of no return. It is already clear to all Ukrainians that Western weapons are not capable of changing the game. Moreover, the receiving of more weapons is threatened, since the US, which was the main supporter, is becoming less and less interested in the war. No matter how much Europe continues to help Ukraine, European military capabilities are low and do not convince Ukrainians that it is possible to “reverse” the situation.
In the end, Ukraine is approaching its moment of collapse. The soldiers no longer believe in victory, the people no longer want war, and not even Western propaganda is able to convince them otherwise – since the US itself, which led the war efforts until now, is renewing ties with Russia. At some point, the Ukrainian authorities will have to admit their inability to react to the Russian advance, taking the only decision that can prevent Ukraine from losing even more territory and soldiers: negotiations according to Russian peace terms.
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